区 域：北京 - 北京市
产品类别：股票 Stock/证券股票行情
详细介绍：
进入[中国南车吧]，看看大家都在谈论什么>>>
中国南车18日(今日)即将面临6亿股网下配售股的解禁。面对如此大的解禁抛售压力,中国南车丝毫不为所动,11月13日及17日的股价仍被牢牢封在涨停板上。是政策利好刺激所致？还是机构长期看好？到底是谁在推高股价？
基金与游资的较量
一方面是其6亿网下配售A股将于2008年11月18日解禁,占中国南车目前流通量24亿股的1/4,而另一方面则是不断的政策和公司利好支撑。
就在双方多空博弈之下,17日中国南车股价走势耐人寻味。开盘时,中国南车以4.44%涨幅高开,并于上午收市时被1亿股封在涨停板上。然而下午刚开盘就出现了大逆转,封盘的一亿股瞬间瓦解,随后买卖双方展开拉锯战,股价7次打开涨停板。虽然最终是以涨停报收,但资金出逃迹象明显。
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央行六大举措加大金融支持力度 原油期货17日收盘创22月新低 罗杰斯：我正投资大陆、台湾农业 摩根大通预计A股3个月内见底 东航南航承认申请注资 尚未批复 美国银行拟闪电增持建行H股 各地保增长 投资总额已逾6万亿 一位投资者在博客上写到,“与海通证券(600837.SH)相比,中国南车在6亿限售股解禁前显得临危不惧。”
据上海证券交易所网站公布的交易信息显示,17日买入中国南车最多的前五个席位中包括了四家私募集中的营业部:华泰证券股份有限公司西安雁塔路证券营业部(17253万元)、光大证券股份有限公司宁波解放南路证券营业部(9425万元)、东吴证券有限责任公司杭州文晖路证券营业部(9338万元)和国元证券(000728,股吧)股份有限公司上海虹桥路证券营业部(5274万元),另外一家则是红塔证券股份有限公司上海骊山路证券营业部(19244万元)。而卖出席位则包括了四家基金机构及一家知名游资集中地——东方证券股份有限公司上海宝庆路证券营业部。由此可见,基金与游资对赌的局势已经浮出水面。
其实,这一游戏自中国南车上市以来就已经开始了。在过去的3个月里,基金买入63.39亿,卖出40.15亿,净买入23.24亿,而游资则买入37.04亿,卖出50.79亿,净卖出13.74亿。
但从上周买卖数据来看,两者都进行了较大的反向操作。11月7日至11月13日,基金席位买入2.91亿,卖出9.3亿,净卖出6.39亿。其中,41次大单交易中,仅14次为买入。而游资则狂买入5.2亿,卖出2.8亿,净买入2.4亿。
“对基金而言,现在中国南车的股价已经到位了,我们对其价格的最好预期也就在3.8元左右。况且周二有6亿限售股流通上市,产生多大影响尚不好估计,所以就趁周五涨停板出货了。”某基金经理告诉记者,趁利好出货还能赚点,等到6亿限售股上市,就不知道会是什么情况了。
“我们不愿意去趟这滩浑水,大不了在低位再买回来。但就周五行情来看,持股的风险不小。”该基金经理认为,对于周一仍然涨停的局面很“出乎意料”。股价创出历史新高居然在限售股上市前,“这点实在让人看不懂”。
据了解,中国南车一直以强抗跌性在熊市中受到基金的青睐,由于股价已经创出新高,所以在回调前抛售是不难理解的。截至三季度,布局中国南车的基金达到了48只共计持有6.4亿股,占该股流通比为31.42%。其中,中国南车的前十大流通股股东中,8席都为基金占有,全部为上市后新进入。其中,南方绩优为其第一大流通股股东,持股1.7亿股,其次,海富通精选(行情,净值,基金吧)为其第3大股东,持股8000万股。
“最近大家都有一定比例的出货,毕竟基金是很重注风险控制的。”上述基金经理表示。
目前价位抛售可获利104.5%
从记者采访结果来看,基金作为主力已经逐步出货,那么游资为什么来接盘呢？
记者从中国南车前十名网下配售名单中,发现有五家证券公司,分别为中信证券(600030,股吧)、海通证券、国泰证券、广发证券以及银河证券。然而在上周游资买卖中,银河证券北京双榆树营业部买入2,394万元,卖出1万元,净买入2,393万元;海通证券杭州环城西路营业部买入2,358万元,卖出327万元,净买入2,031万元,分别位居买入第4位和第6位,而中信证券(600030,股吧)则在上市首日已将网上认购获得的没有限售的中国南车股票全部清仓。
也就是说,游资买入的目的一方面可以短期套利,而另一方面则可能是为手中解禁的筹码制造有利的出货点位,并非看重所谓的政策利好。
某长期跟踪中国南车的证券分析师告诉记者,11月9日出台经济刺激方案后,中国南车在11日仍是下跌,没有持续上涨。这就表明4万亿刺激公司盈利可能只是一个借口。
据TOPVIEW数据显示,中国南车17日虽然被封在涨停板上,但是资金流向为买进131708万,卖出138149万,净卖出6441万。17日中国南车的换手率达到了32.84%,主力资金有明显出货的迹象。
上述分析师表示,资金呈现流出状态时,股价还被封死在涨停板上,这是明显的拉高股价出货手法,但出货力度还不强。很可能是为6亿限售股上市抛售开路,等待明天的好收益。
“周二肯定会回调!”该分析师认为,你不抛总会有人抛,最后就变成了看谁最先抛先受益,毕竟这个股价对应的37倍PE太高了。
中信建投的分析师冯福章也认为有这种可能。他告诉记者,目前中国南车6亿股限售股上市抛售的压力很大。“当前股价明显虚高,已经超过此前中信建投给出的3.5元的估值,而网下配售的价格为2.18元,现在机构抛售至少能获利104.5%,这对机构投资者来说是很有吸引力的。另外,当前中国南车股价涨势过猛,未来可能将面临一个局部回调。”
难现三涨停
虽然政策成功助力推高了股价,公司屡传的利好也吸引了不少投资者,但是,公司的业绩增长真的会因此有惊喜么？
中金的一份报告明确表示,积极财政政策主导下,铁路机车车辆购置将加快、力度也将有所加大,但不宜过于乐观,因为对于政府的规划,从规划到实现销售收入还涉及到规划落实、项目进度、开工进度、铁道部融资能力等诸多环节。至于采购额增加对中国南车盈利的拉动作用,中金预计2009年整个机车车辆采购额将比之前铁道部的规划有15%-20%的增加。
“政策利好也不会短期内显现出来,至少是要等到明年。况且中国南车的盈利是可以准确计算的,不至于会出现3个涨停板。”冯福章表示,周二股价的走势就能解答很多问题了。
但在14日中国南车股东大会上,总裁赵小刚对公司业绩也声称,“铁路投资对中国南车的影响不会立竿见影,可能到年底或者明年年初,中国南车的订单落实情况才会更明朗一些。”
【来源：21世纪经济报道】 (责任编辑：童古)
Into the [South China car it] to see what everyone is talking about>>>
South China car on the 18th (today) is about to face net 600,000,000 shares under the share placing of the lifting of the ban. In the face of so much selling pressure on the lifting of the ban, no cars unmoved South China, on November 13 and 17 shares are still firmly closed in on-board trading. Is a good policy to stimulate the result of? Agencies or long-term bullish? In the end who are pushing up the share price?
With the Fund's capital strength
On the one hand, its net 600,000,000 under the A shares will be placed on November 18, 2008 lifting of the ban, South China account for car present 2.4 billion shares in circulation of 1 / 4, while the other is the constant policy and good corporate support.
Both Straddle in the game, 17, China Southern stock car intriguing trend. Open, the South China cars to high-rise 4.44 percent to open and close in the morning when they were 100,000,000 shares closed in trading on the board. However, just opened in the afternoon there have been reversed, Feng Pan of the instant collapse of 100,000,000 shares, followed by buyers and sellers to start war, the stock opened at 7 trading board. Although the ultimate limit is closing, but fled the capital obvious signs.
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Bank of the six major initiatives to increase financial support to crude futures closed at a 17 month low of 22 Rogers: I was trying to invest in the mainland, Taiwan's agriculture is expected to JP Morgan Chase A shares within 3 months of the China Southern Airlines bottom of the application for recognition has not yet approved funding of the United States Bank of lightning to be overweight Construction Bank security around the growth of H shares with a total investment of more than 6-Wan Yiyi investors on the blog wrote, "with Haitong Securities (600837.SH), China's vehicle in the south limit the sale of 600,000,000 Unit Linweibuju appear before the lifting of the ban. "
According to the Shanghai Stock Exchange Web site published information shows that 17 China Southern to buy car seats in the top five included four focus on private business: Huatai Securities Co., Ltd. Yanta Road, Xi'an securities business department ( 172,530,000 yuan), Everbright Securities Co., Ltd. Ningbo liberation of South securities business department (94,250,000 yuan), Soochow Securities Co., Ltd. Hangzhou Wenhui Road Securities Sales (93,380,000 yuan) and the State Securities yuan (000,728, it shares) Shanghai Hongqiao Road Securities Co., Ltd. Sales (52,740,000 yuan) and the other is a Hongta Securities Co., Ltd. Li Shan Road, Shanghai Securities Sales (192,440,000 yuan). The seats were sold, including the four funds and a well-known concentration of hot money - the Orient Securities Co., Ltd. Shanghai Securities Baoqing Road business department. This shows that funds with the situation in the capital betting on the surface already.
In fact, this game since the Chinese car market since the South began. In the past three months, the Fund for the purchase of 6,339,000,000, 4,015,000,000 sold, bought a net 2,324,000,000, and the capital is 3,704,000,000 buy, sell 5,079,000,000, sold a net 1,374,000,000.
But last week the sale of data, both of which had a large reverse operation. From Nov. 7 to Nov. 13, the fund bought seats in the 291 million sold 930,000,000, sold a net 639 million. Of these, 41 large single transaction, only 14 to buy. The capital is 520,000,000 mad to buy, sell 280,000,000, 240,000,000 of net buying.
"The fund, now China Southern stock car has been in place, and we expect its price will be the best in about 3.8 yuan. Moreover, there are 600,000,000 Tuesday limit the sale of shares listed, not much impact a good estimate, So Jiuchen Friday trading board the ship. "A fund manager told reporters that while the ship can earn a good, wait until the limited sale of 600,000,000 shares of listed, do not know what will be the case.
"We do not want to go to this beach water in the worst case scenario to come back and buy low. But on Friday market, the risk is not a small stake." Fund managers believe that, for Monday's trading situation is still "unexpected . " Stock prices were reaching record highs in the stock market before the sale restrictions, "it is really a people can not read."
It is understood that the South China car has been strong resilience of the bear market funds have been popular, as the stock has hit a new high, so the callback before the sell-off is understandable. As of the third quarter, the layout of China Southern Fund, the car has reached a total of 48 holders of 640,000,000 shares, or stock in circulation for more than 31.42 percent. The Chinese carriages of the South of the outstanding shares of the top ten shareholders, the 8 seats for possession of the Fund, after the listing of all new entrants. Of these, the South's biggest blue-chip shares to its shareholders, holding 170,000,000 shares, followed by sea selected Fortis (market, the net, let Fund) for its No. 3 shareholder, holding 8,000 shares.
"Recently we have a certain percentage of shipments, after all, the fund is a heavy note of risk control." Fund manager said.
At present, the price can be profitable to sell 104.5%
An interview with reporters from the results of the Fund as a major step by step has been shipped, then why the capital set to take it?
Reporters from the South China cars in the top ten list of placing under the net and found that 5 securities companies, namely CITIC Securities (600,030, it shares), Haitong Securities, Guotai Securities, GF Securities, as well as Galaxy Securities. But last week the sale of floating capital, Beijing Shuangyushu Galaxy Securities Sales 23,940,000 yuan buying, selling 10,000 yuan, bought a net 23,930,000 yuan; Haitong Securities in Hangzhou City West Sales 23,580,000 yuan to buy and sell Out of 3,270,000 yuan, bought a net 20,310,000 yuan, respectively, among the first to buy 4 and 6, while CITIC Securities (600,030, it shares) in the first day of listing on-line subscription has not restricted access to the sale of Chinese Southern stock car all the stocks.
In other words, the purpose of hot money can buy short-term arbitrage, but on the other hand, may be in the hands of lifting the ban as a bargaining chip to create a favorable shipping point, the so-called value is not good policy.
Long-term follow-up of a China Southern Securities analyst cars told reporters on November 9 after the introduction of the economic stimulus program, the South China in the 11 car is still down, not going up. This shows that 4 trillion to stimulate corporate profits may only be an excuse.
According to TOPVIEW data show that China Southern 17, although the car was closed in the on-board trading, but the flow of funds to buy 1,317,080,000, 1,381,490,000 sell, sold a net 64,410,000. 17 South China's car reached the exchange rate 32.84 percent, the major funds are the obvious signs of shipping.
Analysts said the above, a capital outflow of state, was also sealed in the stock trading board, which pushed up the share price is clearly the way to ship, the ship is still weak effort. Is likely to be limited to the sale of 600,000,000 shares open market sell-off, waiting for tomorrow's good earnings.
"Tuesday will definitely be back!" The analyst believes that you do not always be those who are left behind, the last to see who becomes the first to benefit from the first throw, after all, this corresponds to 37 times the price too high PE.
CITIC Ka Jian, an analyst for the von chapter that this might be. He told reporters that at present the South China car sales to 600,000,000 shares restricted shares listed on the selling pressure. "High current stock price significantly, CITIC has been building for more than the previous 3.5 yuan given by the valuation, and the net placing price of 2.18 yuan, the agency will now be able to sell at least 104.5% profit, which institutional investors are Very attractive. In addition, the current South China share prices rise too much car, may in the future will face a local callback. "
Three are difficult to limit
Although the success of the policy help pushed up the stock price, the company's record-positive and attract many investors, however, the company's growth really be surprised what it is?
Kim in a report made it clear that, under the guidance of an active fiscal policy, the purchase of railway rolling stock will be accelerated, efforts will also increase, but should not be too optimistic because the government planning, from planning to sales revenue was also involved in Planning and implementation of the project progress, the progress of work, the financing capacity of the Ministry of Railways and other links. As for the increase in purchases of cars in Southern China's role in boosting profits, payment in 2009 as a whole is expected to rolling stock purchases will be before the Planning Ministry has 15% -20% of the increase.
"Good policy and will not appear in the short term, at least until next year. Moreover, the South China car profits can be calculated accurately, will not limit 3 board." Von chapter, said Tuesday's share price movements will be able to answer many questions A.
However, in the South China on the 14th general meeting of shareholders on the car, Zhao Xiaogang, president of the company's performance has also claimed that the "South China's railway investment vehicles will not be an immediate impact, may be the end of the year or early next year, the South China orders the implementation of the cars will also be clearer Some. "
【Source: 21st Century Business Herald】 (Editor: ancient child)
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