区 域：北京 - 北京市
产品类别：股票 Stock/证券股票行情
详细介绍：
Event:
11 13, Tariff Policy Commission of the State Council issued on the export tariff adjustment notice, announced on December 1, 2008 adjust the imposition of export tariffs (including the provisional tariff and special tariff) range of products and rates. Involved in the iron and steel is mainly related to the abolition of the cold, including hot-rolled sheet, strip, wire, large-scale steel, alloy steel, welded steel products such as export tariffs.
Comments:
The elimination of export tariffs on steel products mainly include: the volume of hot-rolled plates (the original 5% tax rate), the narrow part of the cold-rolled sheet (the original 15% tax rate), large-scale steel (the original 10% tax rate), steel (the original 5% tax rate ), Pipe (the original 15% tax rate). The pig iron and steel (25% tax rate), bar (15% tax rate), small and medium-sized steel (10% tax rate), stainless steel billet (15% tax rate), the Department of chrome manganese stainless steel (10% tax rate), and other species, the existing Export tariffs unchanged.
from 1-9 March 2008 analysis of the structure of steel exports, the export tariff adjustments related to a broader range of products, the only hot-rolled sheet (including plate), large-scale steel, welded on three categories accounted for total exports of steel products The number and the amount of 44%, to abolish export tariffs on these products will no doubt reduce the business tax-related business spending, so as to improve the profitability of exporters. At the same time, but should also see that the export tax rate higher wire rod products (accounting for 23% of total exports) has not been included in the scope of the adjustment, so in order for construction steel export-oriented steel prices limited good.
the iron and steel products, tariff adjustment is the background of Chinese steel exports in August since reaching record highs since the rapid decline (in August 7,680,000 tons → 9 on 6,670,000 tons → 10 on 4,620,000 tons), a short span of 2 months Drop by as much as 40% over the same period while domestic demand is also a sharp downturn this from the steel and social growth of the stock on the show no doubt. The result is that domestic steel prices from all of a sudden peak earnings Neiwaijiaokun into the abyss, starting in late September steel prices began to be implemented one after another large-scale production, steel prices fell in October after the encounter is a loss of the entire industry into the mud. We believe that the country is taking full account of the status of the steel industry and steel enterprises to listen to the demands made after the abolition of export tariffs on some of the decisions with the aim of trying to increase steel exports to ease some of the domestic demand due to lack of business caused by difficulties.
Export tariffs and export tax rebate rate adjustment has become the state's macro-control for the steel industry as a common means. Since 2005 the national tax rebate on steel exports and the export tariff policy adjustment of up to 9 times, but this is different: prior to the 8th or lower the export tax rebate rate or increase export tariffs, the general policy is to contain and reduce the Steel exports for the purpose, even if the supply and demand in the surplus in 2005 is no exception; but this time it canceled the export tax rebate to reverse this trend, as good as a policy turning point, we believe that this is the future of the country's macro-economic trends are closely related to judge .
but the effect of the implementation of the policy, we do not consider it over-optimistic on the grounds that in the first half of this year, steel exports is, of course, all the way up from the steel price at home and abroad continued to expand, but its foundation is still solid international demand, 8 Months after the global financial crisis, the international real economy needs a substantial shrinkage of steel exports has been a corresponding difficulties encountered. At home and abroad in August compared before and after the price of hot-rolled plates, we found that steel price at home and abroad not only has not narrowed, in fact, experienced in October after the collapse at home and abroad and even a slight spread widening, early in November as much as 330-340 U.S. dollars / ton. From this point to judge, we believe that since the decline in export prices did not originate from the edge of the narrow, through the elimination of export tariffs to boost the price competitiveness of fear that can not effectively stimulate the rebound in exports. The elimination of export tariffs, at best, only slightly more likely to seize a number of other people's market share (taking into account the number of foreign steel and lower reaches of the demand side have established long-term and stable cooperative relationship, in fact this is not easy), but for the whole market is shrinking cake Do nothing.
for a reasonable proportion of exports, there is a consensus before the industry: control of the production is less than 10% of the reasonable. If the judge from the indicators, as a result of a sharp drop in crude steel production, although steel exports in October fell sharply, the overall proportion is not low, or too early because the only "crazy" reasonable exports down on the introduction of the requirements to stimulate exports The policy is not sufficient reason to fear. We believe that the current domestic and international macro-economic background, 10% of the proportion of the indicators for the export of steel to determine the direction of policy guidance has been little, if further decline in domestic demand, did not rule out a short period of the country continue to improve the export tax rebate rate of steel may be Sex.
States has not canceled or reduced steel wire rods and steel products, such as export tariffs shows that despite the worsening domestic economic situation, but for the national high-energy, high pollution, primary iron and steel products and the export of low value-added products is still negative It also suggests that domestic demand once again pick up, steel prices to restore profits, restrictions on iron and steel resources of such exports is still the long-term policy trend, the export tariff cut may be only short-term expediency.
We steel plate remained cautious view of the pre-. The recent announcement by the State to implement expansionary fiscal policy and large-scale investment in infrastructure is expected to stimulate the steel plates appear larger wave of reaction. However, we believe that the steel industry in the 4 quarter of the entire industry suffered a loss of the possibility still exists, and new investment in infrastructure for real steel demand led to the first quarter after 2 to wait until next year, next year a quarter is traditionally the off-season demand from The judge in the next two quarters in the steel industry's profits hard to fundamental turn for the better. At present the industry as a whole degree of economic decline has not stopped the trend, steel plates of the recent strong performance of the lack of fundamental support, maintaining the "neutral" rating and recommended investors Jiancang appropriate.
from the tariff adjustment may benefit from the listed companies are: Iron and Steel shares (care holdings), Maanshan Iron and Steel shares (care holdings), Jinan Iron and Steel (neutral), which the company's relatively high proportion of exports, and Hot-rolled steel and a large proportion of relatively high. 事件：
11 月13 日，国务院关税税则委员会发布关于调整出口关税的通知，宣布自2008 年12 月1 日起调整征收出口关税（包括暂定关税和特别关税）的产品范围及税率。涉及到的钢铁相关内容主要是取消了包括冷热轧板材、带材、钢丝、大型型钢、合金钢材、焊管等钢材产品的出口关税。
评论：
此次取消出口关税的钢材范围主要包括：热轧板卷（原 5%税率）、部分冷轧窄板材（原15%税率）、大型型钢（原10%税率）、合金钢（原5%税率）、焊管（原15%税率）。而生铁及钢坯（25%税率）、棒线材（15%税率）、中小型型钢（10%税率）、不锈钢坯（15%税率）、铬锰系不锈钢（10%税率）等品种则保持原有出口关税不变。
从 08 年1-9 月份钢材出口结构分析，此次出口关税调整涉及的产品范围较广，仅热轧板材（包括中厚板）、大型型钢、焊管三大类就占据了出口钢材总数量及金额的44%，取消这些产品的出口关税无疑将减少相关企业的营业税金支出，从而改善出口企业的盈利状况。但同时也应该看到，出口税率更高的棒线材产品（占出口总量的23%）并未被纳入调整范围，因此对于以建筑钢材出口为主的钢企利好有限。
本次钢铁产品关税调整的背景是中国钢材出口量自 8 月创出历史新高以来快速下滑（8 月768万吨→9 月667 万吨→10 月462 万吨），短短2 个月的下降幅度高达40%，而同期国内需求也是骤然低迷，这点从钢厂和社会库存的大幅增长上表露无疑。结果就是国内钢企一下子从盈利顶峰坠入内外交困的深渊，9 月下旬起钢企们开始相继实施大规模减产，10 月份遭遇钢价暴跌后更是陷入全行业亏损泥淖。我们认为国家是在充分考虑钢铁行业现状及倾听钢企诉求之后才作出了取消部分产品出口关税的决定，目的就是试图通过增加钢材出口来部分缓解由于内需不足而导致的企业经营困境。
出口关税及出口退税率调整已经成为国家对钢铁行业进行宏观调控的一个常用手段。2005年以来国家对钢铁产品出口退税及出口关税政策的调整高达9 次之多，但这次却与众不同：之前8 次要么降低出口退税率要么上调出口关税，整体方向都是以抑制和减少钢铁出口为目的，即使在供求严重过剩的05 年也不例外；但这次出口退税的取消却扭转了这个趋势，不啻为一个政策拐点，我们相信这与国家对未来宏观经济走势的判断密切相关。
但是对于此次政策的实施效果，我们认为不宜过分乐观，理由是今年上半年钢材出口的一路向上固然是源于国内外钢材价差的持续扩大，但其根基仍然是坚实的国际需求，但8 月以后受全球金融危机的影响，国际实体经济的需求大幅萎缩，钢材出口也相应遭遇难关。对比8月前后国内外热轧板价格，我们发现国内外钢材价差不仅没有收窄，事实上在经历10 月暴跌后国内外价差甚至略有拉大，11 月初高达330-340 美元/吨。从这个角度判断，我们认为既然出口下降并非源于价格优势的缩小，那么通过取消出口关税来增强价格竞争力恐怕也无法有效刺激出口回升。取消出口关税，充其量只是可能略微多抢占一些别人的市场份额（考虑到国外钢厂和许多下游需求方已经建立起长期稳定的合作关系，这个其实也不容易），但对于整个市场蛋糕的缩小却无能为力。
对于合理的出口比例，之前行业存在一个共识：控制在产量的10%以内即为合理。若从这一指标判断，由于粗钢产量的急剧下降，尽管10 月份钢材出口大幅下滑，但整体占比并不低，或者说仅因为前期过分“疯狂”的出口出现合理回落就要求出台刺激出口政策的理由恐怕并不充分。我们认为，在目前的国内外宏观经济背景下，10%这一比例指标对于判断钢材出口政策方向的指导意义已不大，如果内需进一步下滑，不排除短期内国家继续提高钢铁出口退税率的可能性。
国家并未取消或下调钢坯和棒线材等钢铁产品的出口关税，说明尽管国内经济形势日趋严峻，但国家对于高耗能、高污染的钢铁初级产品及低附加值产品的出口仍持否定态度，这也暗示着一旦内需重新回暖、钢企恢复盈利，限制钢铁这种资源性产品的出口仍是长期的政策趋势，此次出口关税下调可能仅是短期的权宜之计。
我们对钢铁板块仍然维持前期的谨慎观点。近期受国家宣布实行扩张性财政政策及大规模基建投资预期的刺激，钢铁板块出现一波较大幅度的反弹。但我们认为，钢铁行业在4 季度遭遇全行业亏损的可能性仍然存在，而新增基建投资对钢铁实际需求的带动最早也要等到明年2 季度以后，明年1 季度又是传统的需求淡季，由此判断，在未来两个季度内钢铁行业的盈利状况很难出现根本性好转。目前整个行业景气度下滑的趋势尚未止住，钢铁板块最近的良好表现缺少基本面的支撑，维持行业“中性”评级，建议投资者适当减仓。
从此次关税调整中可能受益的上市公司主要有：鞍钢股份（谨慎增持）、马钢股份（谨慎增持）、济南钢铁（中性），因为这些公司的出口比例相对较高，且热轧及大型型钢的占比较高。
Event:
11 13, Tariff Policy Commission of the State Council issued on the export tariff adjustment notice, announced on December 1, 2008 adjust the imposition of export tariffs (including the provisional tariff and special tariff) range of products and rates. Involved in the iron and steel is mainly related to the abolition of the cold, including hot-rolled sheet, strip, wire, large-scale steel, alloy steel, welded steel products such as export tariffs.
Comments:
The elimination of export tariffs on steel products mainly include: the volume of hot-rolled plates (the original 5% tax rate), the narrow part of the cold-rolled sheet (the original 15% tax rate), large-scale steel (the original 10% tax rate), steel (the original 5% tax rate ), Pipe (the original 15% tax rate). The pig iron and steel (25% tax rate), bar (15% tax rate), small and medium-sized steel (10% tax rate), stainless steel billet (15% tax rate), the Department of chrome manganese stainless steel (10% tax rate), and other species, the existing Export tariffs unchanged.
from 1-9 March 2008 analysis of the structure of steel exports, the export tariff adjustments related to a broader range of products, the only hot-rolled sheet (including plate), large-scale steel, welded on three categories accounted for total exports of steel products The number and the amount of 44%, to abolish export tariffs on these products will no doubt reduce the business tax-related business spending, so as to improve the profitability of exporters. At the same time, but should also see that the export tax rate higher wire rod products (accounting for 23% of total exports) has not been included in the scope of the adjustment, so in order for construction steel export-oriented steel prices limited good.
the iron and steel products, tariff adjustment is the background of Chinese steel exports in August since reaching record highs since the rapid decline (in August 7,680,000 tons → 9 on 6,670,000 tons → 10 on 4,620,000 tons), a short span of 2 months Drop by as much as 40% over the same period while domestic demand is also a sharp downturn this from the steel and social growth of the stock on the show no doubt. The result is that domestic steel prices from all of a sudden peak earnings Neiwaijiaokun into the abyss, starting in late September steel prices began to be implemented one after another large-scale production, steel prices fell in October after the encounter is a loss of the entire industry into the mud. We believe that the country is taking full account of the status of the steel industry and steel enterprises to listen to the demands made after the abolition of export tariffs on some of the decisions with the aim of trying to increase steel exports to ease some of the domestic demand due to lack of business caused by difficulties.
Export tariffs and export tax rebate rate adjustment has become the state's macro-control for the steel industry as a common means. Since 2005 the national tax rebate on steel exports and the export tariff policy adjustment of up to 9 times, but this is different: prior to the 8th or lower the export tax rebate rate or increase export tariffs, the general policy is to contain and reduce the Steel exports for the purpose, even if the supply and demand in the surplus in 2005 is no exception; but this time it canceled the export tax rebate to reverse this trend, as good as a policy turning point, we believe that this is the future of the country's macro-economic trends are closely related to judge .
but the effect of the implementation of the policy, we do not consider it over-optimistic on the grounds that in the first half of this year, steel exports is, of course, all the way up from the steel price at home and abroad continued to expand, but its foundation is still solid international demand, 8 Months after the global financial crisis, the international real economy needs a substantial shrinkage of steel exports has been a corresponding difficulties encountered. At home and abroad in August compared before and after the price of hot-rolled plates, we found that steel price at home and abroad not only has not narrowed, in fact, experienced in October after the collapse at home and abroad and even a slight spread widening, early in November as much as 330-340 U.S. dollars / ton. From this point to judge, we believe that since the decline in export prices did not originate from the edge of the narrow, through the elimination of export tariffs to boost the price competitiveness of fear that can not effectively stimulate the rebound in exports. The elimination of export tariffs, at best, only slightly more likely to seize a number of other people's market share (taking into account the number of foreign steel and lower reaches of the demand side have established long-term and stable cooperative relationship, in fact this is not easy), but for the whole market is shrinking cake Do nothing.
for a reasonable proportion of exports, there is a consensus before the industry: control of the production is less than 10% of the reasonable. If the judge from the indicators, as a result of a sharp drop in crude steel production, although steel exports in October fell sharply, the overall proportion is not low, or too early because the only "crazy" reasonable exports down on the introduction of the requirements to stimulate exports The policy is not sufficient reason to fear. We believe that the current domestic and international macro-economic background, 10% of the proportion of the indicators for the export of steel to determine the direction of policy guidance has been little, if further decline in domestic demand, did not rule out a short period of the country continue to improve the export tax rebate rate of steel may be Sex.
States has not canceled or reduced steel wire rods and steel products, such as export tariffs shows that despite the worsening domestic economic situation, but for the national high-energy, high pollution, primary iron and steel products and the export of low value-added products is still negative It also suggests that domestic demand once again pick up, steel prices to restore profits, restrictions on iron and steel resources of such exports is still the long-term policy trend, the export tariff cut may be only short-term expediency.
We steel plate remained cautious view of the pre-. The recent announcement by the State to implement expansionary fiscal policy and large-scale investment in infrastructure is expected to stimulate the steel plates appear larger wave of reaction. However, we believe that the steel industry in the 4 quarter of the entire industry suffered a loss of the possibility still exists, and new investment in infrastructure for real steel demand led to the first quarter after 2 to wait until next year, next year a quarter is traditionally the off-season demand from The judge in the next two quarters in the steel industry's profits hard to fundamental turn for the better. At present the industry as a whole degree of economic decline has not stopped the trend, steel plates of the recent strong performance of the lack of fundamental support, maintaining the "neutral" rating and recommended investors Jiancang appropriate.
from the tariff adjustment may benefit from the listed companies are: Iron and Steel shares (care holdings), Maanshan Iron and Steel shares (care holdings), Jinan Iron and Steel (neutral), which the company's relatively high proportion of exports, and Hot-rolled steel and a large proportion of relatively high.Event:
11 13, Tariff Policy Commission of the State Council issued on the export tariff adjustment notice, announced on December 1, 2008 adjust the imposition of export tariffs (including the provisional tariff and special tariff) range of products and rates. Involved in the iron and steel is mainly related to the abolition of the cold, including hot-rolled sheet, strip, wire, large-scale steel, alloy steel, welded steel products such as export tariffs.
Comments:
The elimination of export tariffs on steel products mainly include: the volume of hot-rolled plates (the original 5% tax rate), the narrow part of the cold-rolled sheet (the original 15% tax rate), large-scale steel (the original 10% tax rate), steel (the original 5% tax rate ), Pipe (the original 15% tax rate). The pig iron and steel (25% tax rate), bar (15% tax rate), small and medium-sized steel (10% tax rate), stainless steel billet (15% tax rate), the Department of chrome manganese stainless steel (10% tax rate), and other species, the existing Export tariffs unchanged.
from 1-9 March 2008 analysis of the structure of steel exports, the export tariff adjustments related to a broader range of products, the only hot-rolled sheet (including plate), large-scale steel, welded on three categories accounted for total exports of steel products The number and the amount of 44%, to abolish export tariffs on these products will no doubt reduce the business tax-related business spending, so as to improve the profitability of exporters. At the same time, but should also see that the export tax rate higher wire rod products (accounting for 23% of total exports) has not been included in the scope of the adjustment, so in order for construction steel export-oriented steel prices limited good.
the iron and steel products, tariff adjustment is the background of Chinese steel exports in August since reaching record highs since the rapid decline (in August 7,680,000 tons → 9 on 6,670,000 tons → 10 on 4,620,000 tons), a short span of 2 months Drop by as much as 40% over the same period while domestic demand is also a sharp downturn this from the steel and social growth of the stock on the show no doubt. The result is that domestic steel prices from all of a sudden peak earnings Neiwaijiaokun into the abyss, starting in late September steel prices began to be implemented one after another large-scale production, steel prices fell in October after the encounter is a loss of the entire industry into the mud. We believe that the country is taking full account of the status of the steel industry and steel enterprises to listen to the demands made after the abolition of export tariffs on some of the decisions with the aim of trying to increase steel exports to ease some of the domestic demand due to lack of business caused by difficulties.
Export tariffs and export tax rebate rate adjustment has become the state's macro-control for the steel industry as a common means. Since 2005 the national tax rebate on steel exports and the export tariff policy adjustment of up to 9 times, but this is different: prior to the 8th or lower the export tax rebate rate or increase export tariffs, the general policy is to contain and reduce the Steel exports for the purpose, even if the supply and demand in the surplus in 2005 is no exception; but this time it canceled the export tax rebate to reverse this trend, as good as a policy turning point, we believe that this is the future of the country's macro-economic trends are closely related to judge .
but the effect of the implementation of the policy, we do not consider it over-optimistic on the grounds that in the first half of this year, steel exports is, of course, all the way up from the steel price at home and abroad continued to expand, but its foundation is still solid international demand, 8 Months after the global financial crisis, the international real economy needs a substantial shrinkage of steel exports has been a corresponding difficulties encountered. At home and abroad in August compared before and after the price of hot-rolled plates, we found that steel price at home and abroad not only has not narrowed, in fact, experienced in October after the collapse at home and abroad and even a slight spread widening, early in November as much as 330-340 U.S. dollars / ton. From this point to judge, we believe that since the decline in export prices did not originate from the edge of the narrow, through the elimination of export tariffs to boost the price competitiveness of fear that can not effectively stimulate the rebound in exports. The elimination of export tariffs, at best, only slightly more likely to seize a number of other people's market share (taking into account the number of foreign steel and lower reaches of the demand side have established long-term and stable cooperative relationship, in fact this is not easy), but for the whole market is shrinking cake Do nothing.
for a reasonable proportion of exports, there is a consensus before the industry: control of the production is less than 10% of the reasonable. If the judge from the indicators, as a result of a sharp drop in crude steel production, although steel exports in October fell sharply, the overall proportion is not low, or too early because the only "crazy" reasonable exports down on the introduction of the requirements to stimulate exports The policy is not sufficient reason to fear. We believe that the current domestic and international macro-economic background, 10% of the proportion of the indicators for the export of steel to determine the direction of policy guidance has been little, if further decline in domestic demand, did not rule out a short period of the country continue to improve the export tax rebate rate of steel may be Sex.
States has not canceled or reduced steel wire rods and steel products, such as export tariffs shows that despite the worsening domestic economic situation, but for the national high-energy, high pollution, primary iron and steel products and the export of low value-added products is still negative It also suggests that domestic demand once again pick up, steel prices to restore profits, restrictions on iron and steel resources of such exports is still the long-term policy trend, the export tariff cut may be only short-term expediency.
We steel plate remained cautious view of the pre-. The recent announcement by the State to implement expansionary fiscal policy and large-scale investment in infrastructure is expected to stimulate the steel plates appear larger wave of reaction. However, we believe that the steel industry in the 4 quarter of the entire industry suffered a loss of the possibility still exists, and new investment in infrastructure for real steel demand led to the first quarter after 2 to wait until next year, next year a quarter is traditionally the off-season demand from The judge in the next two quarters in the steel industry's profits hard to fundamental turn for the better. At present the industry as a whole degree of economic decline has not stopped the trend, steel plates of the recent strong performance of the lack of fundamental support, maintaining the "neutral" rating and recommended investors Jiancang appropriate.
from the tariff adjustment may benefit from the listed companies are: Iron and Steel shares (care holdings), Maanshan Iron and Steel shares (care holdings), Jinan Iron and Steel (neutral), which the company's relatively high proportion of exports, and Hot-rolled steel and a large proportion of relatively high.Event:
11 13, Tariff Policy Commission of the State Council issued on the export tariff adjustment notice, announced on December 1, 2008 adjust the imposition of export tariffs (including the provisional tariff and special tariff) range of products and rates. Involved in the iron and steel is mainly related to the abolition of the cold, including hot-rolled sheet, strip, wire, large-scale steel, alloy steel, welded steel products such as export tariffs.
Comments:
The elimination of export tariffs on steel products mainly include: the volume of hot-rolled plates (the original 5% tax rate), the narrow part of the cold-rolled sheet (the original 15% tax rate), large-scale steel (the original 10% tax rate), steel (the original 5% tax rate ), Pipe (the original 15% tax rate). The pig iron and steel (25% tax rate), bar (15% tax rate), small and medium-sized steel (10% tax rate), stainless steel billet (15% tax rate), the Department of chrome manganese stainless steel (10% tax rate), and other species, the existing Export tariffs unchanged.
from 1-9 March 2008 analysis of the structure of steel exports, the export tariff adjustments related to a broader range of products, the only hot-rolled sheet (including plate), large-scale steel, welded on three categories accounted for total exports of steel products The number and the amount of 44%, to abolish export tariffs on these products will no doubt reduce the business tax-related business spending, so as to improve the profitability of exporters. At the same time, but should also see that the export tax rate higher wire rod products (accounting for 23% of total exports) has not been included in the scope of the adjustment, so in order for construction steel export-oriented steel prices limited good.
the iron and steel products, tariff adjustment is the background of Chinese steel exports in August since reaching record highs since the rapid decline (in August 7,680,000 tons → 9 on 6,670,000 tons → 10 on 4,620,000 tons), a short span of 2 months Drop by as much as 40% over the same period while domestic demand is also a sharp downturn this from the steel and social growth of the stock on the show no doubt. The result is that domestic steel prices from all of a sudden peak earnings Neiwaijiaokun into the abyss, starting in late September steel prices began to be implemented one after another large-scale production, steel prices fell in October after the encounter is a loss of the entire industry into the mud. We believe that the country is taking full account of the status of the steel industry and steel enterprises to listen to the demands made after the abolition of export tariffs on some of the decisions with the aim of trying to increase steel exports to ease some of the domestic demand due to lack of business caused by difficulties.
Export tariffs and export tax rebate rate adjustment has become the state's macro-control for the steel industry as a common means. Since 2005 the national tax rebate on steel exports and the export tariff policy adjustment of up to 9 times, but this is different: prior to the 8th or lower the export tax rebate rate or increase export tariffs, the general policy is to contain and reduce the Steel exports for the purpose, even if the supply and demand in the surplus in 2005 is no exception; but this time it canceled the export tax rebate to reverse this trend, as good as a policy turning point, we believe that this is the future of the country's macro-economic trends are closely related to judge .
but the effect of the implementation of the policy, we do not consider it over-optimistic on the grounds that in the first half of this year, steel exports is, of course, all the way up from the steel price at home and abroad continued to expand, but its foundation is still solid international demand, 8 Months after the global financial crisis, the international real economy needs a substantial shrinkage of steel exports has been a corresponding difficulties encountered. At home and abroad in August compared before and after the price of hot-rolled plates, we found that steel price at home and abroad not only has not narrowed, in fact, experienced in October after the collapse at home and abroad and even a slight spread widening, early in November as much as 330-340 U.S. dollars / ton. From this point to judge, we believe that since the decline in export prices did not originate from the edge of the narrow, through the elimination of export tariffs to boost the price competitiveness of fear that can not effectively stimulate the rebound in exports. The elimination of export tariffs, at best, only slightly more likely to seize a number of other people's market share (taking into account the number of foreign steel and lower reaches of the demand side have established long-term and stable cooperative relationship, in fact this is not easy), but for the whole market is shrinking cake Do nothing.
for a reasonable proportion of exports, there is a consensus before the industry: control of the production is less than 10% of the reasonable. If the judge from the indicators, as a result of a sharp drop in crude steel production, although steel exports in October fell sharply, the overall proportion is not low, or too early because the only "crazy" reasonable exports down on the introduction of the requirements to stimulate exports The policy is not sufficient reason to fear. We believe that the current domestic and international macro-economic background, 10% of the proportion of the indicators for the export of steel to determine the direction of policy guidance has been little, if further decline in domestic demand, did not rule out a short period of the country continue to improve the export tax rebate rate of steel may be Sex.
States has not canceled or reduced steel wire rods and steel products, such as export tariffs shows that despite the worsening domestic economic situation, but for the national high-energy, high pollution, primary iron and steel products and the export of low value-added products is still negative It also suggests that domestic demand once again pick up, steel prices to restore profits, restrictions on iron and steel resources of such exports is still the long-term policy trend, the export tariff cut may be only short-term expediency.
We steel plate remained cautious view of the pre-. The recent announcement by the State to implement expansionary fiscal policy and large-scale investment in infrastructure is expected to stimulate the steel plates appear larger wave of reaction. However, we believe that the steel industry in the 4 quarter of the entire industry suffered a loss of the possibility still exists, and new investment in infrastructure for real steel demand led to the first quarter after 2 to wait until next year, next year a quarter is traditionally the off-season demand from The judge in the next two quarters in the steel industry's profits hard to fundamental turn for the better. At present the industry as a whole degree of economic decline has not stopped the trend, steel plates of the recent strong performance of the lack of fundamental support, maintaining the "neutral" rating and recommended investors Jiancang appropriate.
from the tariff adjustment may benefit from the listed companies are: Iron and Steel shares (care holdings), Maanshan Iron and Steel shares (care holdings), Jinan Iron and Steel (neutral), which the company's relatively high proportion of exports, and Hot-rolled steel and a large proportion of relatively high.
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